Health Care Transformation Task Force Releases Analysis of National Health Expenditure Trends

WASHINGTON (April 6, 2021) – The Health Care Transformation Task Force (HCTTF or Task Force), a group of leading health care payers, providers, purchasers and patient advocacy organizations, announces the release of a paper examining long-term trends in health care spending from 2000 to 2020.  This evaluation of national health expenditures found a systemic slow-down in both projected and actual health spending over the past decade. While difficult to quantify with precision, the delivery system’s transformation to value-based payments over fee-for-service payments is a contributing factor to the favorable spending trend.

“This new analysis highlights how the health care system has steadily bent the cost curve over the last decade,” said Blair Childs, HCTTF Chair. “Medicare payment reforms, including value-based payment models, have been big contributors to this outcome.”

The paper, Getting Warmer: Health Expenditure Trends and Health System Reform, shows the overall direction of change to flatten the cost curve is clear and significant. Enacted on the heels of the Great Recession, the Affordable Care Act (ACA) spurred payment reform efforts and impacted several parts of the health care system simultaneously and was followed by another major piece of health care legislation, The Medicare Access and CHIP Reauthorization Act, both of which contributed to lower spending. Overlapping model interventions, changes in existing payment policies, broad macroeconomic forces, improvements in the standards of care, and a host of other factors are cited as key factors that impacted overall expenditures.

“Our paper shows a health care system in a positive, sustained transition,” said Jeff Micklos, HCTTF Executive Director. “Value-based care holds the promise of being an even bigger factor to slowing national health care expenditures over the next decade or two while improving quality as more organizations make the transition.”

The health care system’s move to value-based payment is positively impacted national healthcare spending. At their core, value-based payment arrangements realign incentives to create greater efficiencies and care coordination, which helps to eliminate excessive and repetitive low value care. Several of the Medicare value-based payment initiatives have resulted in gross savings and improve practice patterns. The focus on care redesign has also established new clinical pathways for more effective and cost-efficient care, becoming the standard for providers treating patients inside and outside these models.

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Health Care Transformation Task Force is a unique collaboration of patients, payers, providers and purchasers working to lead a sweeping transformation of the health care system. By transitioning to value-based models that support the Triple Aim of better health, better care and lower costs, the Task Force is committed to accelerating the transformation to value in health care.


Aetna • agilon health • Aledade •  American Academy of Family Physicians •  Anthem, Inc. • Apervita • ApolloMed • Archway Health • Atrius Health • Blue Cross Blue Shield of Massachusetts • Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan • Blue Cross Blue Shield of North Carolina • Blue Cross Blue Shield of South Carolina •  Cambia Health Solutions • Cleveland Clinic • CommonSpirit Health • Community Catalyst • Doctor on Demand • Evolent Health • Families USA • Geisinger • Heritage Provider Network • Humana • Kaiser Permanente • Lamaze International • Mark McClellan • Mass General Brigham • MedStar Health • Mental Health America • National Health Law Program • National Partnership for Women & Families • Premier • Sentara Healthcare • Signify Health • Sun River Health • Trinity Health • Washington State Health Care Authority  • UAW Retiree Medical Benefits Trust

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Megan Zook



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